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One of the more interesting/weird things Topps has done both in their digital card apps and the world of physical trading cards is the release in 2016 of the Star Wars Card Trader trading cards.
I can’t say that on the physical side for most traditional cardboard dealers the set did much for them, mainly because from the outside looking in it appears as though in large part they didn’t really get the product. They failed in large part to recognize critical differences between digital and physical cards and as such failed to capitalize on the advantages. There was a lot of the type of things that physical card collectors tend to go for but the digital twist is where the disconnect comes in and in many ways, has resulted in both opportunity or aggravation for digital collectors. Physical collectors really go for limited edition things, if they are numbered even better as low numbers can command a premium. #1 of 100 is always worth more than #47 of 100. So, the SWCT Physical set had those in the form of various numbered parallels like the Orange and Green set of base cards numbered to 50 and 99 respectively and the super-premium Battle Damaged (10ct) and Slave 1 (5ct) variants. A physical collector chasing down this parallel faced a daunting challenge and I’d wager there are very few completed sets of these with unredeemed codes. Because enter the digital disconnect. In app, ANY orange or green card once redeemed can be used in the Smuggler’s Den for ANY card in the physical set in that variant. Same with Slave 1 and Battle Damaged. So, while the Physical Collector is bound to the card in hand the digital card collector is free to buy the cheapest orange, green, BD or Slave 1 available and redeem it for any character they choose. This disparity in mindsets could not be clearer when looking at eBay pricing. Physical Dealers offering a Rey Slave One Variant Limited to 5 might see it languish at 100+ dollars while “dog” characters fly off the shelves for 20-30 bucks. The digital collector buying the cheap dog character can then redeem the ticket gained for Rey. Big win for the Digital collector! Another place where Physical Dealers seem to miss the boat is on the various chase sets within the physical set. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Reflections subset. The average physical card dealer is naturally going to look at active and completed listings and see dollar signs at the sight of a search string like “Card Trader Reflections Boba Fett”. But what they are seeing is not the reality as the market forces that have driven Reflections in the SWCT as THE currency card of choice do not exist for the physical set and they price these far beyond where anyone would want them. In the process, they’ve polluted the market on eBay with unintentionally (and I’m sure in some cases intentionally) confusing listings for physical cards amidst all the digital listings. One of the biggest disconnects is occurring in the realm of the Signature cards. There are “Autograph” cards included and they are some great looking and very rare pulls but for the physical collector who is naturally drawn to autograph cards these are a total sham. The cards themselves feature the same facsimile autographs we’ve seen a gazillion times in app. Yet very few of these are being redeemed because of perceived value based solely and sadly because most folks just don’t read the fine print. All that aside for the SWCT collector the balance is definitely skewed in your favor and if you haven’t pursued these your time is very quickly running out. Once you have a physical card in hand the process works like so. Each card has a scratch off area on the back. You take your card to http://www.toppsapps.com/swcardtrader/promo and enter your fan name and code. Prepare for extreme pain in your ass if you have a lot like a box or two to enter because the codes are all over the place in terms of caps, no caps and numbers and one wrong digit or caps lock will have you gritting your teeth and reentering the whole sequence over again. Once you have them redeemed you then have to go to your bulletin and claim them. Redemption of the Autographs or the Topps Choice subset immediately put those cards in your stack. For base cards, there’s still another step. Hey, is your ass sore yet? Too bad. You’re still not done! Then you take your tickets and go to the smugglers den and choose the card you want to redeem for then finally you have the digital version of the physical card. The Base cards, anything goes and you can redeem your ticket for any character you like. Blue and Red are listed with blue and red. Battle Damaged are listed with Black and will sort with Black in your stack (jack). Slave 1 are listed under base variant and will sort with base variant once redeemed. Here’s where you will hit yet another digital disconnect. Chances are the more popular a character is the higher count that card will be. Although there were only 5 Slave 1 Variant Rey cards issued in Physical form the number of Slave1 Rey count is between 7 and 10 as most collectors who get a Slave 1 ticket redeem for that one as they perceive it as having the best trade value. And they are probably right. Despite the lack of numbers on the card back there are still ways to gauge counts by various sorting methods that will give a general idea of the actual count when compared to other cards in the stack. Many Hoarders will redeem for their hoard character if they are available and some of the more obscure characters especially in the Battle Damaged (10ct) and Slave 1 (5ct) still stand at 0 count. And time is running out. Den redemptions are slated to end on December 31st, 2017. On January 1, unredeemed codes will be basically worthless and a great many very rare digital SWCTs will never have a chance to be in the app. Bad news for Physical dealers at that point. Many have done very well with this set both in initial orders and the fire sale Topps did of remaining stock a while back at VERY low prices per box and free shipping. But time is running out as demand will crash pretty hard after redemption deadline. Despite the divides between the two markets there’s a lot there for both sides of the digital disconnect. The base cards themselves are unique and definitely stand out with their retro 2015 designs and “GASP” card backs with text and squared edges. And considering average retail was 1.99 a pack even a completed set of 100 blues represents a substantial investment both in dollars and time (man my ass is sore) The divide doesn’t only affect Physical collectors, many newer players will offer common regular blues reds green and orange for the MUCH rarer physical redemption base not knowing the difference. So, while they are neat to have they can also contribute to chronic ass pain. See your physician if the pain lasts for more than 4 hours. All in all, these are cards that are worth pursuing, either by cracking packs or trading in app. The Topps Choice set is quite nice and you will see them trading around as many folks got only one or two and aren’t chasing the set. As matters stand now these are unlikely to have counts higher than 175-200 each before redemptions end. There are no awards to chase, just the simple 13 cards and you’re done. The Base set is 100 cards and that’s a project that could keep you busy for quite a while! Admitting you were wrong is hard. But it’s important to do it sometimes.
I was wrong. I’m actually wrong a lot but this time it was in a public statement so I thought I’d take a second and address that. In previous discussions in weeks past regarding the Sebulba Holo situation with the farmer and the hurting (oh lady) I asserted that the farmer in question was manipulating the market to drive up prices for the Holo wave award and or the Gilded award and put forward an assumption that they woul watch till prices peaked then dump the lot at an undercut price and reap a big cash reward. With Sebulba holo hitting 20+ dollar sales for the few that came up on the block before Holo Screen Wave award I though sure that the first wave of what is reported to be 400-500 of these would appear for sale. None did. Then this week as prices ascended into the 30-40 dollar range I fully expected a huge dump listing. Didn’t happen. As I write this the gilded award is 30 minutes away. Most of the Sebulba Holo’s remain locked away somewhere. The time for these at peak prices is now past. I’m completely baffled. One Podcast reported the farmer is making a statement of some kind. The effect of this statement has definitely moved the market overall on the two premium inserts involved in the Gilded chase as fewer and fewer have made it to credit packs in the intervening weeks. The most recent Widevision sold out in credit packs in a VERY short time. Crosstrading on the Widevision and Holo Screen feeds has fallen to almost nothing. I projected a purely commercial and immediate payoff to this entire Sebulba thing which was pretty clearly incorrect. I’m sorry for that and sorry for anyone who placed any false hope in being able to complete this based on that assertion. The end game here was clearly something I don’t understand. And one we may never fully get any insight on. It is what it is I guess and it’s pretty amazing to see stuff like this go down. Topps is Topps and their plans more often than not drive the conversation and to a large extent the market. But it will always be us that really control it with our desires. And sometimes a wild wind will blow in and upend all of our expectations! You might have noticed that EVERYBODY is begging on hands and knees for two particular Marathon cards lately. Sebulba Holo screen and Tarkin Rogue One Widevision series 2. Why such huge demand for these two cards? Why is NOBODY trading these?
Okay. here's what's up. On Sebulba Holo a pretty prominent ebay seller (or farmer) managed to go ham on it and lock in 500 of the 1000. Some rumors suggest possibly more. The objective is market manipulation, corner the market. Drive up demand then dump for a larger than usual payoff. Gilded Galaxy has already shown to have a week to week effect on demand as people try to get the 7 needed. Holos had settle into the 3.75-4.50 range depending on character. The farmer is speculating on this continuing. They'll starve the market then feed it all at once and make in the 8-10 dollar range. The same people that were saying boo why Sebulba I'll wait will now pay twice as much to get week 6 Gilded. Tarkin suffered the same fate though it seems more than one farmer saw the light on that one with a weeks notice. So, bad news is you're not going to see many Sebulba holo on the trading block considering the counts on Gilded. Most folks that are hard core on that chase have theirs locked down and the vast majority of the remainder will be appearing on eBay. Same with Tarkin. I've seen people in the feed referring to this as being "Parmed" like the Color Quotes. During that marathon a wealthy collector was able to cut the 250 count Queen Amidala card from that set effectively in half by simply buying a ton of bundles since these were direct sale variants. Anyone who snoozed on it was out of the chase. These cards reside in that account to this day. If anything he's probably added to the hoard since then! That's kinda how Parm rolls. This is a different animal, better and worse depending on your point of view. Good news is these cards WILL become more available in the very near future. They will be a bit more expensive than average in real dollars on eBay but the farmer's objective will be to have none in hand by deadline. In terms of how we feel about it, it is what it is. If Topps objective with the 5 hr window and cash bundles was to thwart the farmers and collect more revenue for themselves. Well they got it half right at least. I would imagine more that are in the gilded chase are reluctantly taking shots at the bundle now to avoid getting "Farmed". Hope you've been logging and saving those credits in because football is BACK!
The tranquilizer is taking effect, as the veterinarian prepares to send all those beloved puppies and kitties into the digital void with one last set of Kitten and Puppy cards. The Farewell set are daily drops (4pm for PC and 7pm for KC) with your standard odds, two F2P Variants and one premium pay only limited to 50 copies.
With billions of saved credits in the few remaining users hands they are selling out quickly. PC and KC are going to be taken over by someone else, at least according the the Developer's statement. That remains to be sen and basd on previous experience with these devs, you'd be wise not to place much trust in anything they say now when they literally have nothing to lose. My sources told me long ago that the server contracts for the game ran through August 2017 and here we are right on that timetable. Spend off those saved credits, crosstrade for whatever you can. Despite the devs assurances, My prediction is and has been for some time that this will be the first high visibility Digital Card app to go dark. I think we are about to see what that looks like. In the words of Peter Pan "To die will be an awfully big adventure." With Marathons FINALLY starting up again in SWCT it’s a good time to look as the other apps and see what to hone in on for your best chance at landing these new cards you’ll need. As with last wave the chases are shorter (15 weeks) with awards each 5 weeks. Also like last time they are doing the first two at odds but as timed release to gauge demand before locking in counts. My advice would be to be careful now about establishing crosstrade values too strongly in the first couple of weeks of the new marathons since obviously the counts will be MUCH higher than they will be in future weeks once they lock in counts. It might actually be wise to trade in app for these first two and save up credits in the sports apps. Grasshoppers vs Ants in the battel to the cross trade death. SUNDAY! SUNDAY SUNDAY!
Huddle is still deep into the offseason slog. Somewhat lightened by new marathon type chases meant to span the dead time in the sport itself with some sets doing better than others. For Crosstrading purposes Whiteout with relatively easy odds for sigs are a good choice or hold out for the Gallery to drop on Saturdays for the best bang for your free credit buck. Skate is moving into the offseason soon and like most sports apps many teams are long since out of the chase for the cup and folks are shutting down. Trading hard for the last few things they might have missed before putting the skates in the closet for another offseason. If you have credits now I’d say watch for post Stanley Cup sigs or something like that and throw hard at it before going dormant yourself and start saving credits. Once the offseason plan develops we’ll take another look and see what if anything can help for crosstrading. In Slam there is no real season but sets come and go all the time. My current fave is Archives which I find well worth taking a little hop over the paywall at 99 cents to get 1:10 odds on the Yellow which crosstrade EXTREMELY well to SWCT with some patience. Slam is world famous for crosstrade offers from users with ridiculously desiccated wasteland collections with tons of saved credits so in terms of moving into new marathons it can be a great resource for free coins. Watch for opportunities as always for Signatures and especially anything with female wrestlers. If you thought SWCT needs to get a girlfriend Slam takes that to 11. Kick I seldom Crosstrade with anymore. I have found that MLS collectors there are a lot easier to deal with and tend to go for sigs there with my free credits. UFC feels like it has roughly 30 players and 1000 crosstraders but I still manage to get a thing or two there from time to time. Avoid boosts there and go for the limited to 100 type inserts. And last but not least BUNT. But has been rough sledding for me this year as I have had crap luck overall. There are some sets that come with easy odds and some fast set chases that can land you a thing or two but Bunt guys are seasoned pros when it comes to crosstrading. They will work as hard as you are for advantage in a crosstrade and know values. If you’re prepared to trade fair the upside is many bunt guys have older SWCT collections and while you are unlikely to be trawling out Reflections and Nightbros for anything but the rarest and hottest bunt pulls it is one of the few places you might actually SEE cards like that for Crosstrade. And it’s never really a bad idea to go for old cold stuff like the random lonely WV series 1 or even later low count Space Paintings if you happen across them. Chances are nobody has asked for them in a LOOOOOONG time and you are more likely to get a yes. Quidd seems to be doing well and keeping it’s players overall pretty happy. Not much crosstrading I see out of Quidd, largely because they cast such a wide net of interests within the app and make trading your Buffy for their Star Trek incredibly easy there’s no real incentive to go outside. But you never know and it’s worth saving up credits there and it’s always fun to open packs. So there’s my take. Your mileage may vary and as always I’m hungry for insight and info! Sound off if I missed something! I finally got to 90 Force Score! I've been pretty oblivious to it to be honest for most of my time in SWCT but noticed a few months ago I was at like 88.something and started paying attention. My wife has like a 92 force score and it's both emasculating and sexy as hell. I can't explain it. I recently had my old alt that I had to kiss goodbye as the android tablet it was on got so bad the batteries swelled and the case actually popped apart in my hands signaling that it was either about to explode or most definitely expire in some dramatic fashion that probably would not be something I'd want happening in the house. Having heard from an old wino that sleeps behind the convenience source (my go to source for SWCT info) that quantity and sold out was a factor that moved the needle I transferred all the remaining 2015 S1 base and any inserts off, the whole time feeling like the danged thing was going to burst into flames any second. I finished and threw it away in a dumpster by the paint factory. What could go wrong? I noticed I'd now climbed into the mid 89.something range. I started paying closer attention to hoard trades, no more S3 for S4, and crosstrading with less of a focus on today's hot garbage and more with an eye towards old chestnuts like Greens, oranges and lower count old inserts even if they were not super hot popular stuff like Shadowbox. Little by little my score climbed bit by agonizing bit. I made a few mistakes here and there but throughout this week I got within spitting distance. A couple of quitters in the feed yielded yellows and reds and the oddball inserts and yesterday morning I finally did it. Legit 90 force score. Grade A idiot all the way. And best of all nobody was hurt in that big fire down at the old paint factory. Just a quick followup, I received a pretty excited message from Huddle Playoff Challenge Champion Bishop_Eli yesterday and boy did he have good reason to be so hyped! His prize package arrived from Topps and to say it exceeded expectations is putting it lightly.
I had always expected it would have just been signed by their 2016 Cover athelete Todd Gurley but this thing was covered in sigs and two in particular that send the thing right through the stratusphere. Yeah, that's Ezekial Elliot on there. Also Joey Bosa. Also Cardale Jones, Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller. He also did get a cover pic signed by Gurley. It appears this is an Ohio State Helmet and all these players were Ohio State alums. Putting even more crossover appeal for Buckeye fans onto an already incredible piece of memorabilia. With the Big Kahuna taken care of us lesser being can probably expect to see our more modest prizes showing up soon. Congrats again to Bishop_Eli for a hard fought win and one hell of a nice prize!!! |
Gregg Keefer
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